1.Global Freedom Declines for 19 Consecutive Years

In February 2025, Freedom House published its annual "Freedom in the World 2025" (hereafter referred to as "the Report"). Since the survey's inception in 1973, it has been a valuable resource for tracking trends in freedom across countries and regions worldwide. Using a proprietary methodology, the Report assigns scores out of 100 and categorizes countries as Free, Partly Free, or Not Free. The Report, covering 2024, marks the 19th consecutive year of overall decline in global freedom. Political rights and civil liberties deteriorated in 60 countries, while only 34 countries saw improvements.

2024 witnessed the largest number of elections in history, but over 40% were marred by violence or fraud. In Mexico and South Africa, criminal organizations attacked candidates, while extreme political polarization led to violence in France, South Korea, and the United States. Furthermore, cases of electoral system manipulation and exclusion of prominent opposition candidates increased in countries like Russia and Tunisia.

Even in democratic nations, there is a growing trend of elected leaders undermining the independence of the judiciary and media. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, which was later withdrawn but led to ongoing turmoil. In Slovakia and Mexico, the powers of judicial systems and anti-corruption agencies were curtailed, weakening oversight of government misconduct. For detailed survey results, refer to the Freedom House website.

Material 1: Freedom Scores of Major Countries (2024 Survey)

Note: F stands for Free, P for Partly Free, and N for Not Free. Numbers in parentheses indicate point changes from the 2023 survey.

Source: Excerpt from Freedom House (2025)

Material 1: Freedom Scores of Major Countries (2024 Survey)

Note: F stands for Free, P for Partly Free, and N for Not Free. Numbers in parentheses indicate point changes from the 2023 survey.

Source: Excerpt from Freedom House (2025)

2. Rethinking the Global Power Balance: Beyond the Democracy vs. Authoritarianism Paradigm

In my previous article (2024), I analyzed the power balance trends by aggregating GDP based on the three categories of this survey. Material 2 updates the most recent data from that article with the 2024 survey results from the Report. While the trend of declining freedom continues, at first glance, it appears that the retreat of Free countries' power has stabilized.

In my article (2024), I emphasized that maintaining the power of the democratic camp requires not only economic growth in Free countries but also maintaining and enhancing the degree of democracy within each country. However, recent international developments, particularly the behavior of the United States, have far exceeded previous expectations, including rapprochement with Russia and intimidation of allies. While the world was never neatly divided into "democracy vs. authoritarianism," if the United States—previously considered "free" with a functioning "rule of law" domestically—becomes the greatest destabilizing factor in the international order, analyzing power balance by freedom scores as shown in Material 2 may become meaningless. This is because the implicit assumption that countries with high domestic freedom and functioning rule of law would also prioritize the rule of law in international society is crumbling.

Material 2: Power Balance Trends by Freedom Scores (Share of World GDP, Nominal US$)

Note: Cuba and North Korea are excluded due to missing data in IMF (2024). GDP data for the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia in 1990 are from UN data.

Source: Compiled by Dai-ichi Life Research Institute based on Freedom House (2025) and IMF (2024)

Material 2: Power Balance Trends by Freedom Scores (Share of World GDP, Nominal US$)

Note: Cuba and North Korea are excluded due to missing data in IMF (2024). GDP data for the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia in 1990 are from UN data.

Source: Compiled by Dai-ichi Life Research Institute based on Freedom House (2025) and IMF (2024)

3.Future Outlook: The Need for Middle Power Countries to Unite Amid Advancing Rule by Force

In January 2025, President Trump took office in the United States, and his February meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine ended in apparent failure. While China abstained, the United States joined Russia and North Korea in voting against a UN resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine on its third anniversary. President Trump has repeatedly made statements threatening the sovereignty of other countries, openly expressing desires to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal.

According to the report, the United States scores 84 points, which is lower than Japan's 96, Canada's 97, and the UK's 92, but still classified as Free (Material 1). The major issue, as mentioned earlier, is that the United States, classified as Free, is destabilizing the international order alongside authoritarian countries. While the U.S. faces numerous domestic issues such as polarization and inequality, it has been unprecedented for a U.S. president, elected under the rule of law, to openly demonstrate "rule by force disregard of international law" in the international community. One premise for maintaining the international rule of law has been that powerful countries "appropriately use their power to maintain the rule of law." Despite criticism of double standards, the United States has ostensibly tried to behave this way.

Will the world now become one of "rule by force," where powerful countries flex their muscles and subjugate weaker nations? While U.S.-China relations remain competitive and far from cordial, we must avoid at all costs a world order dictated by the "force" of the U.S., China, and Russia—countries with outstanding economic and military power, and in Russia's case, massive nuclear capabilities.

However, if such an order becomes the norm, we may need to recategorize countries when considering the power balance: (1) "Great powers capable of exercising rule by force," (2) "Middle power countries emphasizing the rule of law," and (3) "Other emerging countries." Japan and Europe would fall into category (2), and they need to devise ways to effectively counter the rule by force while engaging countries in category (3). Some far-right European parties have begun distancing themselves from the Trump administration, likely because they cannot become category (1) powers themselves and cannot rely entirely on an ally that insults even its friends.

Currently, Japan and many European countries have military alliances with the United States. Middle power countries face the challenging task of seeking independence from the U.S. through "de-risking" while still relying on it, and collaborating with other countries that adhere to—or are compelled to adhere to—the rule of law to counter rule by force. China is likely to accelerate its efforts to engage category (3) countries. Additionally, the possibility of Europe uniting to acquire "power" to counter the U.S. and China, though currently challenging, cannot be ruled out. I intend to further explore various ways of depicting the power balance in response to changing international situations.

The Report's survey is based on 2024, before President Trump's inauguration. Given the current situation—an administration even more authoritarian than Trump's first term, with declining press freedom in the White House including the exclusion of some news agencies—it is anticipated that the rule of law in the U.S. itself may be wavering, potentially leading to a further decrease in the U.S. score in the next survey. Freedom House began publishing "Freedom in the World" in 1973 to promote values such as freedom and democracy globally. At that time, no one could have imagined worrying about the United States' own freedom score or that the U.S. would become the greatest destabilizing factor in the international rule of law.

Original in Japanese:
https://www.dlri.co.jp/report/ld/431272.html